Poland: Favorable Forecast Despite of Recession in 2013

Poland’s economy is the biggest among the younger member states and continues to grow even with the current recession.

According to the recent restults by Eurostat, the national economy soon approaches EU average. Within the next two to three years, Poland could even surpass Portugal, as measured by the GDP per capita, and soon after also leave Greece behind, as announced by Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita.

Around the year 2000, the Polish GDP was only at 48 % of EU countries. In 2011 it was already at 64 %. Moreover, the difference between Portugal and Poland was 33 percentage points in 2000. Eleven years later, it was only 13 percentage points.

The development will probably continue even if the signs currently point to recession in Poland and the economy in Central Europe will grow by an estimated 1.25 % this year. In 2012, economic growth in Poland came at 2 %. Despite of the present slow-down, the gap between Lisbon and Warsaw could be filled until 2014 or 2015 at the latest. Especially when having in mind that Poland, according to experts, has a very strong position compared with other countries in this region. Mark Allen, up-to-recently Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central and Eastern Europe, has attested Poland consistency in the market reforms, particularly at the beginning of the transformation process. Thanks to a cautious macro-economic policy, Poland has been able to circumnavigate the crisis.

In the meantime, two young EU members, Czech Republic and Slovenia have already exeeded Portugal. However, the biggest leaps in the increase of GDP per capita in the timeframe between the years 2000 and 2011 show the youngest members Romania and Bulgaria. Romania was able to double its GDP per capita from 26 % to 46 % of EU average. Bulgaria has reached 46 % too in 2011, starting from a rate of 28 %.